Forecasting Insists for Place to Stay at Resort

C. Premila Rosy, Dr. R. Ponnusamy

Abstract: Economic System is characterized by increasing uncertainly in their dynamics. This increasing improbability is likely to bring upon you bad decisions that can be costly in financial conditions. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables a helpful activity in any association. This paper takes the lodge industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for place to stay at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objectives is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make place to stays available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with external events that may affect the variables being forecast. Actual data from a hotel are used to illustrate the forecasting method.

Keywords: Forecasting; Uncertain variables; economic revenue management systems; hotel industry; holt-winters approach