Using the Knothe Time Function to Predict Surface Subsidence: A Case Study from Ha Long City, Vietnam

L. Q. Nguyen

Abstract: This article investigates the applicability of the Knothe Time Function (KTF) in forecasting surface subsidence caused by underground mining activities, using the Thong Nhat coal mine in Ha Long City, Vietnam, as a case study. The study derives two key parameters, and c, from seven initial monitoring stages along line T and employs them to predict subsidence in the subsequent eighth and ninth stages. Results indicate a strong correlation between predicted and measured values, with maximum deviation limited to 61 mm (7.5% of actual subsidence). The Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE) for these stages are 0.017 and 0.024 meters, respectively, underscoring the reliability of the model. This research highlights KTF?s potential for effective dynamic subsidence trough prediction and risk reduction in mining operations.

Keywords: Knothe Time Function, surface subsidence, mining deformation, predictive modeling, coal mine monitoring